V Recessions, U Recessions, and L Recessions

Jared Bernstein does a nice job showing the relative recovery dynamics of several recessions suffered in the US since June of 1969. As he briefly explains the role of business cycles on his blog, and with a great graphic showing employment as a share of population (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics), recoveries take form based on how quickly employment numbers rebound. V recessions hit bottom with recovery in jobs showing a relatively quick rebound. Re-hires or easier mobility between jobs tend to work to the benefit of the unemployed here after the initial storm is weathered and the economic adjustment kicks in. U recessions rebound more slowly, and in the early 90’s and 00’s were viewed as “jobless” recoveries. Not as easily explained, but clear to have been the dynamic for these two recoveries.

Where we are now is in one of the more insidious recoveries, described by the L profile. The long-term unemployment in this dynamic is ensuring for some, especially for older workers, that they will not enter the workforce again at the same level of income or with the same level of work as when they left it. That is the tragedy of such a loss of utilizable capacity, or in more human terms, a tragedy of the loss in terms of human dignity for those that have worked all their lives, played by the rules, only to be pushed out of the job market as they approach their retirement and are unlikely to be able to return to meaningful work.

For those in that case, without sufficient savings with which to retire, either through a loss of savings in the financial crash, not having been able to save, a divorce, foreclosure, or medical crisis that ate up savings, this portends a difficult end of life scenario for those caught on the foot of the L…

Look around. Many of your neighbors are in just this predicament. Connect the dots as to why: a failure to enact effective fiscal and monetary policy to speed recovery (thanks to anti-revenue, “business-friendly” corporatists), off-shoring of jobs to boost profits, reliance on automation to boost profits, down-sizing and consolidation to boost profits, technological advances that make re-training difficult for many. Efforts to weaken already weak safety nets leave these under-utilized workers scrambling at the end of their lives (also thanks to anti-revenue, “business-friendly” corporatists). While Bernstein doesn’t delve into the role of inequality in our current L shaped recovery neither the preferential tax benefits for those making a living from capital gains and dividends (the corporatists), nor the race to maximize profits is to be ignored.

Source: BLS

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About sdemetri
Portland, Maine freelance photographer, writer, activist

2 Responses to V Recessions, U Recessions, and L Recessions

  1. todays date says:

    i love your blog, i have it in my rss reader and always like new things coming up from it.

  2. Elisa says:

    Amazing website! Helpful and enlightening. Many thanks!

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